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US P&I Death Rate Crosses Epidemic Threshold
Recombinomics Commentary 22:30
January 16, 2014

Tomorrow’s CDC Week 2 FluView will show a jump in the P&I Death rate to 7.5% (from 6.9%), which will be above the epidemic threshold.  In addition, pediatric deaths will double from the 10 reported through week 1 to 20 for the total reported in week 2 (MA, KY, LA. OK, TN 3, TX 3).  These increases reflect the severe and fatal lab confirmed cases reported largely in the south in recent weeks.

Although relatively low levels were still reported in many northern states in the week 1 report, the numbers are now beginning to increase in the lagging northern states.  Both P&I and pediatric deaths are lagging indicators, and both numbers are expected to rise significantly in upcoming weeks.

Earlier indicators, such as the severe and fatal H1N1 cases reported in Dallas County or California will be reflected throughout the country because of the increase in polymorphisms that target human lungs.  L194I, D225G, and Q226R were noted in initial sequences released by the CDC (largely in egg isolates), and the evidence for a higher level of these changes was supported by the recently released sequences from China, where most of the sequences were from egg isolates and the vast majority of these isolates had at least one of the changes that target huan lung.

Below is a list of the US cities with at least 5 P&I deaths reported in week 2, as well as a rate of at least 10% in the week 2 report.

Glendale CA          21.3%
Worchester MA     20.8%
Fall River MA         20.0%
Jersey City NJ       20.0%
Santa Cruz CA      19.4%
Duluth MN              16.7%
Grand Rapids MI   16.0%
Ogden UT              15.4%
Los Angeles CA    14.5%
Canton OH             14.3%
Peoria IL                 14.3%
Savannah  GA        14.1%
Birmignham AL      13.9%
Shreveport LA        12.6%
Chattanooga TN    12.4%
Long Beach  CA    12.3%
Memphis TN           12.2%
Boston MA              12.2%
Norfolk VA              11.9%
Honolulu HI              11.7%
San Francisco CA 11.5%
Minneapolis MN     11.3%
Las Vegas NV        11.0%
South Bend IN         10.8%
Mobile AL                10.7%
Fresno CA               10.2%
Sacramento CA      10.2%
Lincoln NE               10.0%

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