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Nigerian OIE Report on January 10 H5N1 Outbreak

Recombinomics Commentary

February 8, 2006

Date of first confirmation of the event: 6 February 2006.

Date of start of the event: 10 January 2006.

Total number of susceptible animals in the outbreak: 46,000 (poultry).

Number of cases: 42,000.

Number of deaths: 40,000.

The above information from the Nigerian OIE report indicates the H5N1 outbreak began on January 10 and affected the vast majority of the susceptible animals.  The delay in reporting and confirming has led to significant spread, since now 40% of the farms in the area are affected.

The delay also encouraged other countries in the Middle East and Africa to deny H5N1 infections.  Culling has begun in the Middle East in regions adjacent to Turkey, although the countries culling deny H5N1 infections. 

Similarly, countries in northern and eastern Africa have denied H5N1 involvement in die offs of wild and domestic birds, which allows H5N1 to spread among densely populated poultry, leading to more dual infections, recombination, and novel H5N1 sequences.

This spread was very predictable base on migration patterns of species known to be H5N1 positive, yet the cover-ups continue. Only Iraq has filed an H5N1 OIE report from the Middle East, although Iran is investigating swan deaths.

WHO has added authority to investigate suspect outbreaks, but they have failed to identify any unreported outbreaks in the Middle East and it is not clear that they have looked in Africa.

H5N1 is rapidly expanding its geographical reach as WHO issues hopes and dreams regarding a lack of human-to-humans transmission and "discounting" of human cases in countries where H5N1 was not been reported in poultry.

The scandalous behavior and reporting require investigation by third parties, as H5N1 predictably accelerates its spread and WHO issues outdated press releases that withhold disease onset dates and relationships between confirmed patients.


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