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174 Marburg Deaths Raise Fatality Rate to Over 99.4%

Recombinomics Commentary

April 8, 2005

>>  By Wednesday, 181 cases had been booked with 159 deaths and today 19 more suspicious cases, including 15 deaths joined, but the death rate went down to 87 per cent. <<

The above statement is in error.  A death rate is based on known outcomes, and is not lowered by adding newly diagnosed patients who have not yet had time to die.  The 87% would be accurate only if all hospitalized patients survive.  Since the fatality rate has been at or close to 100%, there is no evidence to project a recovery by all diagnosed hospitalized patients.

The Red Cross disclosed monthly cases and fatalities.  All cases through February had died.  In February 30 of 31 had died.  However, it was unclear if the 1 surviving February case had actually survived, or was still in the hospital (the table had no column for discharges).  However, if that patient did recover, that would be the only reported discharge.

Thus, when the listing came out several days ago, there were 150 reported deaths and one possible survivor, generating a case fatality rate of greater than 99.3% (150/151 deaths).  Since that report there have been 24 more outcomes, and all 24 have been fatalities.  Therefore, the current death rate is greater than 99.4% (174/175 deaths).  If the February case has not been discharged, then the case fatality rate remains at 100%.

Only recovered Marburg patients can lower the fatality rate.  It is not lowered via increased hospital admissions with unknown outcomes.
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