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Marburg Toll in Angola Increases to 423

Recombinomics Commentary
une 8, 2005

>> As of 5 June, the Ministry of Health in Angola has reported 423 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. Of these cases, 357 were fatal. The vast majority of cases have occurred in Uige Province, where 412 cases and 346 deaths have been reported.

The number of new cases being reported in Uige municipality has declined considerably, with only 1 new confirmed case detected in the past week. <<

The number of Marburg cases continues to grow.  The number of cases has grown to 423, but the number of reported deaths is only 357. The difference between reported and fatal cases is now 66, which is an all time high.  This large differential would indicate that many patients are recovering or remaining infected for longer period of time.

However, the official report indicates the increase in the number of deaths are declining.  Moreover, te case fatality rate is close to 100%, so it is not clear that the large increase of reported cases that are alive are due to treatment successes.

The numbers from the Ministry of Health have been suspect.  Most of the reported cases outside of Uige have been discarded and the numbers reported cases appears to come in bursts.  The differential between the number report end number dead remains curious.

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