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Bird Flu Pandemic Spreading to Chengdu Sichuan in China?

Recombinomics Commentary

July 22, 2005

Four positive eruptions unclear reasons disease nine people die
(Abundant news on July 23rd, 2005)
(The Central News Agency Taibei on 22nd news) the Chinese Central Committee Television today evening reports, recently one month, the Sichuan capital positive city had the unclear reason disease, until now discovers 20 examples, 9 people died, 6 person of perilous.

The report indicates, the Sichuan health department evening notifys, from June 24th to July 21st, the capital is positive first, two, three people hospital one after another admits 20 examples unclear reasons disease patient, the patient arises the initial period all appears the high fever, feels weak, the partner has disgusting, vomits, after that hypodermic has ðöѪ, symptom and so on shock.

Up to July 21st, has nine patients does not govern the death, one patient leaves the hospital, ten patients still in hospital treatment, six person of perilous. (Abundant news

It is said, the patient completely is the peasant, the age in 30 to 70 years old between.

The notification indicates, in uninhabited arises with the patient close contact, has not discovered the infection phenomenon.

The notification also said, the accurate cause of disease also must further verify, the laboratory examination work is being carried on.

According to what is stated, after the Chinese medical department receives the epidemic situation report, has sent out to unite the expert group goes Sichuan assists the local development medical service to treat and cure, the epidemiology investigation as well as the epidemic situation control processing work. (Abundant news

The above report raises the possibility of H5N1 bird flu spread to Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province.  The earlier boxun reports described human outbreaks of H5N1 in Qinghai Province, which is sparsely populated.  Chengdu is a major city with a population of about 10 million.  The above report indicates there are 20 infections with 9 dead and 6 more critical.  The case fatality rate would be very high and consistent with bird flu rates seen in Vietnam and Thailand last year.  However, the H5N1 at Qingahi Lake is quite virulent in birds, and the reports from China suggest the infections are spreading quickly.

Sichuan is just to the east of Qinghai. The weather has turned cold early at Qingahi, and it is snowing at Qinghai Lake.  Therefore, the migration from Qinghai Lake may have already begun, which may be spreading H5N1 to points south and east in China.  Chengdu could accelerate spread with a dense population and an International airport.

Although not confirmed, the timing, location, and high fatality rate support a raging flu pandemic in China

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