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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Spreads Across Northern Mongolia
August 25, 2005
in the period from 1 through 7 August, 2005, in the lake Alag-Erdene Of khubsugul'skogo Aimak was discovered the case of wild bird. Later was established the reason for the loss pernytykh - bird influenza. Since reports main administration for the extraordinary situations of Mongolia, from the ptichego influenza perished in Khubsugul'skom Aimak - 181 birds, in The the bulganskom - 12, Khenteyskom - 3, in The the selenginskom - 57, Eastern- Gobi - 3, in The the sukhebatorskom - 4, eastern (Choibalsan) 3, in Ulan-Bator - 14 birds. Entire number of dead birds dotiglo 308.
The above machine translation indicates the H5N1 wild bird flu has spread across Mongolia in the north from its western to eastern border. Although the number of dead wild birds is small, the path is long and indicates H5N1 should now be entering northern China. Indeed, Boxun reports indicate bird flu is in several northern provinces including Xinjiang, Qinghai Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi.
Note: The bird flu in the above provinces in China have not progressed beyond the rumor stage.
This extended geographical reach to the east matches the reach to the west (see map) suggesting that as the birds begin migrating south, they will spread H5N1 to most of Europe and Asia. The outbreak will exceed the outbreak in 2004 where most countries to the east and south of China reported H5N1. This season the spread should be markedly greater.
As the H5N1 reach broadens, the chance of recombination and acquisition of human receptor binding domain increases. The H5N1 isolates from Qinghai Lake and Chany Lake are similar as are isolates across southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan.
This rapid spread of H5N1 across southern Russia and adjacent countries suggest H5N1 wild bird flu will soon have a global presence. The current pandemic vaccine was made against H5N1 from Vietnam and is not likely to be effective against H5N1 wild bird flu. Creation of new pandemic vaccines is urgently needed.