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H5N1 Cluster in South Sulawesi Increases Pandemic Concerns
September 29, 2005
the two citizens of the Soreang District, Parepare, that was brought to the Public Hospital of Andi Makassau underwent the maintenance.
Both of them were put into isolation space.
Sania and Sanawira suffered the high fever and had difficulty breathing....
The citizen of the Soreang District, Parepare was it was suspected strong tertular his mother that died.
The mother had the sign similar to birds flu namely the high fever and had difficulty breathing.
The above machine translations describes a familial cluster in the Soreang District of South Sulawesi. The mother has already died with bird flu symptoms and now two of her children have symptoms. The map of H5N1 bird flu cases in Indonesia shows that the cases are spread throughout the country and are appearing as clusters. In Jakarta (see map) there are clusters of clusters.
These larger growing clusters define phase 5 of a pandemic and as the reports accumulate daily, it seems that Indonesia is very close to the final phase 6, which is defined by sustained transmission in humans.
Some of the members of the familial clusters may have become infected by a common source, but the vast majority have a 5-10 day gap between the onset of symptoms in the index case and family members. This time gap is characteristic of human-to-human transmission.
The first two confirmed cases in Indonesia were both members of familial clusters with such a gap, and the frequency of these reported clusters is increasing.
A baby of an admitted patient was admitted yesterday in Jakarta, a sibling of two fatal cases in Demak, near Samerang in Central Java was just admitted, and now there is the above cluster in South Sulawesi involving a new admission.
Although the WHO is discounting these new cases, in part because samples are collected after the H5N1 has moved out of the nose and throat, the positive antibody levels in some patients coupled with PCR data and symptoms in others, paints a clear picture that WHO refuses to acknowledge.
The program of interventions with Tamiflu was based on a single outbreak in a remote village in Thailand. The widespread clusters and clusters of clusters in Indonesia indicate that the pace of H5N1 spread in Indonesia far outdistances WHO's ability to even write press releases that are current. Their count of just 4 confirmed H5N1 cases throughout all of Indonesia compliments their scandalous monitoring of H5N1 worldwide.
H5N1 has clearly evolved and has become markedly more efficient at transmitting among humans, and has done so via recombination. WHO continues to monitor reassortment with human genes, which has never been reported for H5N1 and is conceptually flawed, since the human receptor binding domain resides on the HA protein and swapping away the H gene would eliminate the H5 serotype.
H5 will clearly be resident in humans worldwide.
The resulting major pandemic appears to be accelerating in Indonesia at this time.