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H1N1 Attack Rate Explodes In Ukraine
Recombinomics Commentary 16:29
November 1, 2009

In the Lviv region at 9.00 am on November 1 the number of deaths due to epidemics of influenza and SARS is 23 people. Of these, two children under 14 years old and 21 adults.

It is reported by the official web portal of the Lviv regional state administration.

According to official figures, the number of patients with influenza and SARS in the Lviv region is 78 thousand 102 persons (including children under the age of 14 - 38 thousand 450 adults - 39 thousand 652).

The number of hospitalized - 1 thousand 799 persons (including children under the age of 14 - 639, adults - 1 thousand 160).

In general, the incidence rate in the area is 312.4 per 10 thousand people (with children under 14 years - 967.8 per 10 thousand population).

The above translation describes the latest data on the H1N1 outbreak in the Ukraine.  The updated government website has 53 fatalities (see updated map) and breaks down cases by region, including data for influenza and acute respiratory illness (see table here).  The number of fatalities suggests that most ARI cases are swine flu, because in some instances the number of fatalities is between 0.5 and 1% of listed influenza cases.  The ARI cases are 10-20 fold higher, which would significantly lower the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), but even with the listed ARI cases, the CFR would be alarmingly high.  Thus, the number of ARI cases may be higher, or the virus is producing a significantly higher CFR.

However, as seen above, the incidence level in children has reached an alarming high rate of 10% in those under 14.  If true, this rate would indicate the virus is spreading rapidly and raise additional concerns that the virus has changed and has a very high attack rate.

Thus, the data is still quite fluid, and information on the sequence of the virus is critical.  Prompt release of these sequences would be useful.

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