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Paradigm Shift Intervention Monitoring
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Ukraine Dead Increase
to 354 - Fatal H1N1 Cases Have D225G
The above numbers represent the latest figures from the Ukraine Ministry of Health. The increase in deaths is 10, which is lower than recent increases and more Oblasts have fallen below the epidemic threshold, but Live still leads in daily increases in cases (from 114,211 to 118,256) suggesting the outbreak has moved east (see map). Similarly, Kiev recorded the largest increase in fatalities (14 to 18).
Recently, Mill Hill in London released sequences from 10 patients in Ukraine and most were in the areas hit hard at the beginning of the outbreak, Ternopil and Lviv. Four of the ten were sequences from deceased patients and all four had D225G, which was not present in the six HA sequences from patients who survived.
This correlation between the receptor binding domain change, D225G and fatal cases is cause for concern, and recent reports describe large increases in cases and fatalities in Poland, raising concerns that this change has significantly spread to the west of western Ukraine also.