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November 29, 2004
>>"The most conservative estimate is that seven to 10 million people would die, but the maximum range will be more -- 50 million or even in the worst case 100 million people," Omi said in his starkest warning yet of the potential peril from a mutation of avian flu to a form that may be transmitted by humans.<<
It looks like WHO is doing the math. If 1-2 billion people are infected with a virus that has a 70% fatality rate, then the number dead would be closer to 1 billion than 2-7 million. The estimate above is more consistent with the H5N1 case fatality rates in Thailand and Vietnam.