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Exponential Spread of Bird Flu in Vietnam

Recombinomics Commentary
January 22, 2005

>>: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported on Saturday that bird flu has spread to 232 communes in 23 cities and provinces nationwide, with more than 500,000 chickens, ducks and quails being culled. After Hanoi and Ha Nam, Hai Duong is the third locality in the northern region to be affected by bird flu, with the latest outbreaks detected on Saturday morning. The Mekong Delta still has the highest outbreaks so far.<<

The spread of bird flu in Vietnam continues to accelerate.  The number of communes affected was reported as 25 on Jan 7.   The number jumped to 112 on Jan17, to 160  on Jan 19, 179 on Jan 20, and 232 today.  The same type of increase was seen for poultry killed or culled this month.  The number was 130,000 on Jan 12, jumped to 254,000 on Jan 17, 296,000 on Jan 19, and over 500,000 today.

These dramatic increases in Vietnam suggest more poultry infections in neighboring countries.  Thailand has reported modest increases this year. There have been no recent reports out of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia, or China.

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