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Paradigm Shift Intervention Monitoring
US Week 3
Pneumonia & Influenza Death Rate Spikes to 9.8%
Tomorrow’s week 3 CDC FluView will cite a
Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) death date of 9.8%
due to 1373 P&I deaths (out of 13,973 deaths in the largest
122 cities in the United States). As seen in the above P&I
graph for the period between 2002-2006, the 9.8% is the highest since
late 2003 when the rate briefly topped 10%.
In week 2 of this season the rate rose to 8.3% from 7.3% in week 1, raising concerns that week 4 will have a rate higher than seen in the above graph.
The 2003-04 season was due to the emergence of an H3N2 strain (Fujian/411/2002) which produced a large number of deaths in those over 65, as well as a high number of pediatric deaths. The high death rate in children led to the requirement in the US for reporting of lab confirmed pediatric deaths. Tomorrow’s FluView will cite 8 more deaths to bring the official total to 37 (above the 34 deaths in the entire 2011-12 season). However, additional cases not in the week 3 total indicate over 50 pediatric deaths have been reported this season.