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US Cities With Week 3 P&I Death Rates Greater Than 10%
Recombinomics Commentary 22:15
January 24, 2013
week 2 P&I Rate

The week 3 Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Death Rate jumped to 9.8% from 8.3% in week 2.  The 8.3% in week 2 represented a full percentage point jump from the 7.3% in week 1, which was just above the epidemic threshold.  The 8.3% produced a dramatic spike as seen above, while tomorrow’s graph will be alarming and may precipitate another CDC telebriefing.  The 9.8% rate is the highest rate since the peak in late 2003, when the rate briefly topped 10%.  However, the steep curve in the recent rates suggests the rate in week 4 may be higher than the record level in 2003.

Last week the 8.3% rate was associated with 16 cities that had at least 10 P&I deaths and a rate of at least 10%, including one city with a rate above 20% (Springfield MA) and three additional cities with a rate above 15% (Knoxville TN, Akron OH, Nashville TN).  In week 3 the number of cities that match the above criteria increased to 36 (see list below) including six with a rate above 20% (Canton OH, Duluth MN, New Haven CT, Knoxville TN, Worchester MA, Waterbury CT) as well as 9 more with rates above 15% (Erie PA, Ogden UT, South Bend IN, Akron OH, Des Moines IA, Washington DC, Syracuse NY, Providence RI, Austin TX).

Regions (6)

Cities (36)
Canton OH 31.9%
Duluth MN 26.8%
New Haven CT 25.5%
Knoxville TN 22.6%
Worchester MA 21.7%
Waterbury CT 20.8%
Erie PA 19.1%
Ogden UT 17.9%
South Bend IN 17.8%
Akron OH 16.4%
Des Moines IA 16.2%
Washington DC 16.2%
Syracuse NY 16.0%
Providence RI 15.8%
Austin TX 15.0%
Los Angeles CA 14.9%
Boston MA 14.8%
Richmond VA 14.7%
San Jose CA 14.4%
Dayton OH 14.1%
Indianapolis IN 14.1%
St Paul MN 13.9%
Buffalo NY 13.0%
Memphis TN 12.7%
Salt Lake City UT 12.4%
Tulsa OK 12.4%
Peoria IL 11.8%
San Diego CA 11.4%
Las Vegas NV 11.0%
Cleveland OH 10.9%
Omaha NE 10.9%
Birmingham AL 10.8%
Tacoma WA 10.7%
San Antonio TX 10.7%
Baltimore MD 10.5%
Albuquerque NM 10.2%

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